Strategy & backtest
We replayed every one of the pool's 22,895 swaps since launch with a $1,000 deposit, sharing fees in proportion to the real active liquidity at each moment. HYPE is assumed flat in dollars; swap costs of 1% plus slippage are charged on every rebalance.
What we tested
- Fixed bands from ±5% to ±20%, never re-centred.
- Re-centring by swap after 5, 20, 40 or 20 minutes out of range.
- Re-centring with single-sided liquidity instead of a swap (no fee, but capital idles).
- Width scaled to realised volatility, fee filters, asymmetric bands, dual positions.
Results, $1,000 deposit
| Strategy | Full history | Last 72h | Last 48h | Last 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hold HYPE and KNTQ | −4% | −4% | −4% | −4% |
| ±20% fixed | +112% | +42% | +26% | +12.5% |
| ±10%, swap after 20 min | +105% | +55% | +39% | +24% |
| ±5%, swap after 20 min | +124% | +94% | +53% | +27% |
| ±5%, re-centre immediately | −97% | — | — | — |
What we learned
- Narrow bands win, as long as you wait before re-centring. The price is noisy but rarely trends far.
- Paying the 1% swap to get back in range beats waiting with single-sided liquidity while fees are this high. The swap repays itself in a few hours.
- Volatility-adaptive widths, fee filters and asymmetric bands did not beat a fixed band reliably. They fit one period and failed the next.